If I ran...the St. Louis Cardinals
(Note: This entry was written for the fantastic blog If I Ran.... Do yourself a favor and check it out.
An even 50 games into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals have an abysmal 21-29 record, and are tied for the fewest wins in the National League. Only Kansas City and Texas have fewer wins in MLB. Injuries have hit this team hard, as the disabled list is flush with important pieces of the squad. Starters Chris Carpenter (elbow) and Mark Mulder (shoulder), reliever Josh Kinney (shoulder), outfielder Preston Wilson (knee) and catcher Yadier Molina (wrist) are all on the DL with significant injuries.
The only respite for this team is the comforting fact they play in the horrendous N.L. Central. This team still has hopes for a playoff spot, but those hopes are fleeting and probably not realistic, though if last year's World Series taught me one lesson, it's that anything is possible.
That said, if I ran the Cardinals, I wouldn't completely give up hope for this year, but I would start to make changes, and plan for the future. Walt Jocketty has done a wonderful job during his tenure, but he struck out this offseason. Here's what I would do to right the ship.
-Recall Anthony Reyes from AAA
Anthony Reyes, the promising young pitcher who won Game 1 of the World Series last October, was recently optioned to AAA Memphis by the Cardinals. While his numbers leave much to be desired (0-8, 6.08 ERA), he is also the victim of extremely low run support, as the Cardinals averaged 2.11 runs per game during his starts. A look at his numbers compared to Adam Wainwright (4-4, 5.59 ERA), and you could make a reasonable argument that Reyes has been at least as good (and I use the word "good" very loosely) as him, if not a little better. Using the stats page from the outstanding baseball website The Hardball Times, let's look at some numbers from both pitchers.
ERA+
Wainwright: 74, Reyes: 68
WHIP
Wainwright: 1.79, Reyes: 1.35
Slugging% Against
Wainwright: .472, Reyes: .446
Strikeouts Per Game
Wainwright: 5.5, Reyes: 7.0
Strikeout to Walk Ratio
Wainwright: 1.65, Reyes: 2.17
Opponents Batting Average:
Wainwright: .335, Reyes: .259
Opponents On Base%:
Wainwright: .398, Reyes: .324
So, as you can see, other than run support, the numbers fall mostly with Anthony Reyes being the better pitcher. It's possible that the real reason Reyes is in the minors, and Wainwright and Kip Wells (2-9, 6.20 ERA) are still in the rotation is Reyes wants to do things differently than pitching coach Dave Duncan. In a live chat, Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss had this to say about the situation:
Reyes and Duncan do have different philosophies. It is an uncomfortable truth that became more obvious when Duncan suggested last weekend that it would take more than 2-3 solid AAA outings for Reyes to return to St. Louis. Reyes is equally insistent that he will not alter his mechanics. His delivery does not work for a sinker-style pitcher. He's told the organization repeatedly he won't change. He needs to become a change of speed pitcher who can "spot" the ball, many believe. If the Cardinals believe Reyes needs to conform to a four-seam mentality, my guess is that both parties won't be satisfied unless there is a trade. Reyes was surprised by last Sunday's demotion and is reluctant to dicuss the situation.
This is nothing new to Cardinals fans. Duncan wants groundball pitchers, and he wants his staff to do things his way, or find somewhere else to pitch. People like Garrett Stephenson and Jason Marquis know this all too well. It's hard to argue the success Duncan has had in the major leagues, so Reyes may have to conform, or the Cards may have to show a willigness to see if Reyes' approach can work.
-Fast track Colby Rasmus :
Rasmus is the Cards number one prospect, and he has been tearing it up in AA this year, to the tune of .295/.385/.583, to go along with 10 homeruns and 8 stolen bases. He is the Cardinals centerfielder of the future, and with Jim Edmonds finally showing his age, it won't hurt to get Rasmus up to AAA some time this year, with an eye toward playing in the show by the middle of next summer. Farm director Jeff Luhnow has his eye on the kid:
"It's still a matter of doing it over a long season. Yes, Colby has had a fantastic first couple months in Double-A, but that's just what it is — a first couple months in Double-A. I don't know how patient we're going to be. I know we want to be, and it's still early."
-Spend some money this winter
The Cardinals went on the cheap last offseason, hoping Kip Wells and Adam Kennedy would be all they needed to replace departures such as Ronnie Belliard and Jeff Suppan. They were wrong. This winter, the market will once again be littered with players who are overpriced. Too bad. Every team has to pay to get premium players. The Cards routinely offer a little less than the other guy, hoping the draw of playing for a routinely competitive team and in a great baseball city will draw them in. It hasn't worked recently. Free agents will be expensive, but the Cards need arms and bats alike. Outfielders like Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki and Aaron Rowand will be available, as will pitchers Mark Buerhle, Bartolo Colon, Scott Linebrink, Freddy Garcia and Carlos Zambrano. Fans in St. Louis will demand they make a hard run at some of the above names, after this lackluster offseason.
The Cardinals are in a deep hole right now. The team is not very good, their stars are getting old, injuries are mounting and fans remain restless. There is room for a little hope, though. The division is terrible, which means they can contend soon if they do a little tinkering. They still have Albert Pujols and once Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder get healthy, the pitching should improve. Chalk 2007 up as one of those forgettable years and concentrate on the future.