Whose Team Needs Them More - Pedro's or Mulder's?
Two of the most successful pitchers of the last decade are due to make starts as their teams engage in a weekend series. Mark Mulder will start on Sunday, and Pedro Martinez gets the call on Monday ... in Palm Beach, Florida. The two will be making rehab starts for the Class A affiliates of the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, respectively.
The reports on both Mulder and Martinez have been good. The question is: which team needs their pitcher more?
Both teams are in the midst of pennant races, though the Mets have a 6 game cushion on the Phillies. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are chasing both the Brewers and Cubs, and remain 3 games out of first place.
The Mets starting rotation has an aggregate 4.23 ERA, but it has risen every month since the start of the season. In April, the Mets starters compiled a 2.96 ERA, best in the National League. In May, they had a 3.69 ERA for the month, in June it was 4.20, in July it rose to 4.50, and in August it has been 5.04.
In St. Louis, the Cardinals starting rotation has a 5.04 ERA for the season, but it has gotten lower in recent months. For the month of June, the starters compiled a hideous 5.31 ERA, it went down to 4.54 in July, and has been very good in August, as the starters have a 3.84 ERA for the month.
The return of both will mean a big boost to each club, as long as they stay healthy. So which team will benefit the most? That depends on which pitcher they replace. In New York, that would be Brian Lawrence, who has not been very good since his recall on August 3. He has a 5.57 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and opponents have hit .318 off of him.
Meanwhile, unless the Cards go to a six-man rotation, the odd man out will most likely be Anthony Reyes. Despite his 2-12 record, Reyes has pitched decently. He has received little to no run support, and his 5.61 ERA is in contrast to his .256 opponents batting average and 1.31 WHIP. He is certainly capable of delivering good performances, more so than Lawrence.
Still, it is pretty clear that the Cards need Mulder more than the Mets need Martinez. Despite their rising ERA, the Mets have a far more proven and stable rotation than the Cardinals. This month may just be a fluke for St. Louis' starters. It is probably unrealistic to believe the likes of Joel Pineiro and Kip Wells can maintain their recent success.
That said, the return of these two formerly outstanding pitchers are clearly going to help both squads. The Mets will count on Pedro to help them hold off Atlanta and Philadelphia, while the Cards need Mulder to assist in an unlikely late season surge to topple the Cubs and Brewers.
1 Comments:
La Russa has said that Mulder will "probably" get a start when he comes back, which in Tonyspeak means "only if we have no shot at the Central, or if I'm dead." You're more likely to see him out of the pen, if at all, much like 2001, when Matt Morris came back from his surgery. Now, if Wells and Reyes continue to get hammered again, like the last two games, you could very well see Mulder in there as soon as he comes back. I don't expect him to be all that effective though...
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